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The bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said it needed a 0.5 percent increase after private sector wages rose more than the central bank's previous forecasts, putting more pressure on mortgage lenders and businesses struggling to pay their loans. Was.
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We haven't changed our estimate of longer-term impacts, but we've brought some of them forward and we think they're probably coming faster than we previously thought.
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Predicting a shallow recession, the bank said economic output would fall 1% from peak to trough, compared with a 3% decline expected at the time of its November outlook.
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However, the economy is projected to contract in each quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 before staging a modest recovery.
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The bank expects the headline rate to fall sharply from 10.5% in December this year to 3.5% by the end of the year and then to 1% in 2024. The inflation target of the bank is 2%.
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The Bank calculated that Jeremy Hunt's tax hike, which is due to hit household incomes from April, would cut GDP growth by 0.4% next year.
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